A new Green Cape report is forecasting that 6 GW of new private solar PV and 3.5 GW of new private wind capacity will be installed in South Africa by 2030, involving total investments of R132-billion.

This, despite serious grid constraints and uncertainty over the future of public procurement, which led the authors to exclude from their estimate any new capacity arising from government’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) over the period.

The ‘Large-Scale Renewable Energy Market Intelligence Report 2025’ estimates that the solar PV deployment will involve investments of R72-billion by 2030, while the investment value of the wind projects is estimated at R60-billion.

Although public programmes have, until recently, been the primary driver of large-scale renewable-energy development in South Africa, the report states that the industry is increasingly shifting to private offtaker agreements with independent power producers (IPPs).

The recent underperformance of the REIPPPP, the report adds, has also increased uncertainty over the programme’s continuation in its current form.

“Unless new bid windows are announced, there will be no new investment opportunities in the public space,” it adds.

The private agreements, meanwhile, are being further enabled through the use of wheeling; a financial arrangement that allows electricity generated by IPPs to be allocated across a transmission or distribution network to end consumers, regardless of their geographic location.

“This presents an opportunity for investors to develop large-scale renewable-energy power plants to sell electricity directly to customers through the Eskom or municipal networks,” the report states.

It adds that demand is underpinned by companies seeking to improve energy and cost certainty and reduce their carbon footprints.

This shift is especially prominent in the mining and industrial sectors, where export-oriented companies are seeking to prepare for the introduction in 2027 of a carbon border adjustment mechanism in Europe, and potentially in other markets too.

“The key barriers to unlocking the private large-scale renewable-energy market in South Africa are grid capacity constraints, uncertainty around Eskom unbundling and reform, as well as risks associated with private power purchase agreements.

“Overcoming these barriers has the potential to unlock further investment in large-scale renewable energy,” the report states, noting that an 80 GW pipeline of renewables is currently under development in South Africa.